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Sunday, September 25, 2022

2022 Philippine election forecasting (Ep. 1) | Naked Politixxx Podcast

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In this dry run episode of the Naked Politixxx Podcast, Jeff, Emil and Jan Argy discussed the fundamentals of political forecasting and the possible contours of the 2022 Presidential election in the Philippines. They dissected past elections, assessed possible scenarios for 2022, and looked at the political stars of various Presidentiables.

Here is the sneak peak of the podcast:

Q: If you are advising Leni Robredo assuming she is the candidate of the opposition, what does she need to do para may laban sya sa makinarya and endorsement ng Duterte administration?

“She should want it; she should be faithful to the cause meaning to say it is no longer President Duterte that she is fighting against in 2022… She will be the most senior politician come 2022, and she can leverage that to run as President. So in terms of political future, these six years of Duterte is a test for her, if she survives this, she can be a future President”. – Emil Samaniego

“She needs to consolidate the opposition… Pre-Covid maliit ang chance ni VP Leni na manalo on a presidential election, pero ang covid-19 na ‘to gave her a platform to show her leadership; and less doon sa narrative na DDS vs Dilawan, I think mas napakita ni VP Leni itong ability nya to lead something like covid response despite limited budget, despite being in the opposition, and her ability to rally the private sector behind her. Mas na-highlight sya not being anti-Duterte but being herself.” – Jeffrey Reyes

“[VP Leni] could capitalize on her base of support from the D & E. ‘Yong ABC nya +21, ‘yong S & E +35 and +46 so nagre-resonate ‘yong laylayan; ‘yong paglaban nya sa mga laylayan.” –Jan Argy Tolentino

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